"Obama Effect" on Middle East elections

People are talking about the so-called "Obama effect." They are saying that Saad HaririSaad Hariri's Future Movement did better than expected in the Lebanese elections because Barack ObamaBarack Obama reached out to the people of the Middle East. So the success of the pro-American March 14 alliance may be an indication that the people of the Middle East are reaching back to Obama, according to some observers. I'm kind of surprised as well. Maybe "surprised" is not the right word. But I'm definitely disappointed. I have nothing personal against Saad Hariri. I just think that Lebanon would be better served by a government that is pro-Lebanon rather than pro-Saudi or pro-US. Maybe Joe BidenJoe Biden's veiled threat about aid being dependent on the outcome of the election also had something to do with it.

Now people are saying that the most important upcoming election is the one that will happen in Iran. If the Iranian people elect a reformist President who will normalize relations with the United States, then this will be a sign that the "Obama effect" is real. I think it is unlikely that Mahmoud AhmadinejadMahmoud Ahmadinejad will get re-elected. His economic policies have not worked. And there is a lot of discontent in Iran over the fact that his confrontational foreign policy has left Iran more isolated. But Iran has a stronger sense of nationalism than Lebanon. And so even if the Iranian people elect a President who will be friendlier to the Americans, he is still likely to be pro-Iran rather than pro-US and pro-Saudi like Saad Hariri.