Obama's Russia Visit -By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

Obama's Russia Visit

-By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

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I.

In international affairs relations between the strongest UNSC veto powers USA and Russia occupy the center slot and perhaps rightly so. Both jointly and divided they decide the fate of the world as the resolution of all major crises depend now on the bilateral relations between the two. The former foes pursuing their own interests globally do often oppose each other’s international moves. During the Bushdom the bilateral reality almost crashed. Declaring to revise relations with Russia and after searching for a common ground with Germany on Iran crisis, as first leg of his three nation trip covering Russia, Italy and Ghana, President Barack ObamaBarack Obama is making his visit to Moscow to cement the ties with the Kremlin leaders. Obama is all set to make his maiden trip on July 6-8 to Russia, the only powerful with UNSC veto status to challenge US unilateralism with some substance. USA counts on the presidents being able to make an announcement on interim results at the summit. The White House said the negotiations are taking place in a constructive and business-like manner and the visit to Russia would provide the chance to deepen engagement on issues including missile defense and security challenges. Russia said that talks with the USA on reducing vast arsenals of Cold War nuclear weapons were proceeding constructively ahead of the visit by U.S. President on the eve of July 4, the traditional date for celebrating the independence of the U.S.A.

Obama’s Moscow trip takes place in the face of the defeat of a coup attempt in Iran by the anti-Islamic forces having allegiance to USA and UK to remove president Ahmadinejad and perhaps to kill him by using Iranians- reminiscence of Iraqi Leader Saddam HusseinSaddam Hussein. The July Summit agenda would concentrate on improving practical cooperation, for example on countering nuclear proliferation, reducing the stockpile of nuclear weapons, cooperating on nonproliferation and trying to work out differences on a U.S. missile defense system in East Europe. They would also discuss August's Afghan elections and broader political and economic ties. The contentious issues include nuclear proliferation, Afghanistan and Pakistan, conflicts in Iraq and the Middle East, and the global economy.

Russian President Dmitry MedvedevDmitry Medvedev said Washington and Moscow must set aside the power politics of the past and use a forthcoming summit to unite in tackling global economic and political problems. Seeking to narrow differences before Obama and Medvedev meet in Moscow on 6th, both countries have restated their desire to "reset" relations, which deteriorated to near Cold War levels in Washington and Moscow. Three rounds of talks at top level have concluded. U.S. lawmakers and their Russian counterparts met in Moscow on June 28 for the fourth round to discuss arms control, North Korea and other international issues. Setting the stage for President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow next week, Russian officials called the talks constructive. The talks between a U.S. House Foreign Relations Committee delegation and Russian foreign affairs officials were inconclusive, however. US Committee chief Howard BermanHoward Berman said he would try to eradicate Cold War-era laws that hamper their development. Both sides say they hope to meet again to discuss regulating their nuclear weapons before the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in December.

II

Finding a replacement for the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) before it expires on Dec. 5 would mark a thaw in relations between the world's biggest two nuclear powers. A resolution of contentious issues is not always a cake walk even for the skillful diplomat with enormous skills in the field. As a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004, Obama frequently spoke of the need to keep “loose nukes” out the hands of terrorists and rogue nations. He even supported the program aimed at securing and dismantling the nuclear, chemical and biological weapons inside the former Soviet Union.

Declaring to embark upon new settings in global relations, President Barack Obama said he is keen to reduce tensions between the former super powers. In May 2009 President Obama said the US and Russia have an "excellent opportunity" to improve relations on a "whole host of issues". Obama said he pursues better Russia ties. Russia also wants to link the nuclear talks to U.S. plans to deploy an anti-missile shield in Europe and has pushed for the USA to put a limit on the number of delivery systems -- the rockets or other means that deliver weapons. Third round of U.S.-Russia negotiations on START will take place June 23-24 in Geneva. Recently, Obama and Medvedev have said the new arms deal should cut stockpiles below those in the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), under which both sides are to cut their arsenals to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by 2012. Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had a good first meeting in Europe last month, agreeing to work together to reduce their countries' nuclear arsenal. But a recent thaw has been complicated by a spy scandal at the NATO headquarters and Nato military exercises in Georgia.

The USA has 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads deployed; Russia has 2,800. The two sides agreed to further warhead cuts in 2002, and Russian and American arms control experts believe that the START replacement treaty would seek to cut arsenals to 1,500 on each side. The United States, unilaterally, pulled out from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 making joke of all talks of arms limitations. Russia pulled out from the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty in 2002 too, in response to the USA’s decision. The previous treaty, in accordance with which the parties undertook to cut their nuclear forces from ten to six thousand nukes, expires on December 5, 2009. The results of the talks will have to be exposed not later than July 6, when US President Barack Obama visits Russia.

Russia also announced the expulsion of two NATO diplomats in retaliation for NATO revoking the credentials of two Russian envoys in Brussels. NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe is one point of recent contention between Russia and the US. Others include disagreements over Russia's war with Georgia and how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions. Russia and NATO at NATO-Russia Council meeting in Corfu (Greece) have taken a step toward improving relations damaged last August by the territorial battle in Georgia. While they did not appear to make any progress on the issue of Georgia, the ministers discussed potential areas of cooperation, including terrorism, the war in Afghanistan, nuclear proliferation, piracy and drug trafficking. Terrorism remains an important issue for the foes to use to come together a bit more. NATO cut most diplomatic ties with Russia after the war with Georgia, which erupted over two separatist Georgian regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia has recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and increased its military presence there.

The talks became quite complicated during the recent years because of the intention of the previous US administration to deploy elements of the US missile defense system near Russia’s borders – in Poland and in the Czech Republic. The US has already installed similar elements near Russia’s Kamchatka, on the Aleutian Islands, which belong to the USA. The Bush administration had insisted the planned missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic is aimed at protecting Europe from Iran. But Russia sees the plans as a Cold War-style project that could eliminate Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Obama has not been explicit about his intentions, saying it would be prudent to "explore the possibility" but expressing some skepticism about the technical capability of U.S. missile defenses.

III

Washington plans to station anti-missile batteries and radar detection systems in the Czech Republic and Poland as part of a global system to spot and shoot down hostile enemy rockets before they reach the U.S. Moscow, which relies heavily on nuclear weapons for its defense because of the poor state of its conventional weapons, fiercely opposes the anti-missile system as a threat to its security. The USA says it intends to create the missile defense system to minimize the nuclear threat from Iran, North Korea and several other rogue states. However, Russia claimed that the two countries were unable to build long-range ballistic missiles. Therefore, there was no need for the United States to deploy anything in Eastern Europe. Russian leaders believe that the new elements of the missile defense system pose a threat to Russia’s national security and being set up only to contain Russia as the US policy towards Russia. Russia offered the USA alternative sites for adventure and to use the radar station in Armavir (the Krasnodar Region) and in Gabala (Azerbaijan), but USA rejected Russian solutions. US media have already started covering Barack Obama’s forthcoming visit to Moscow on July 6-8. Unfortunately, the articles from US journalists are presumably negative.

The chief goal of Obama’s visit is to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, before it expires in December. Russia and the US have begun working on a new treaty to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or (Start I), which expires in December. The seminal deal capped the number of warheads and reduced ways of delivering them. Both sides have said they are ready for further cuts are hopeful they will meet the deadline for a new treaty. The new treaty is considered the first step in the no-nuclear agenda embraced by Obama and Medvedev in a joint April 1 declaration. The two administrations also have made the agreement the centerpiece of efforts to revive strained U.S.-Russian ties.

The summit is the outcome of the lengthy process of negotiations between the one-time Cold War foes. President Medvedev, who was in Washington 2008 Nov16 for the global financial summit, had called for talks with President Obama as soon as possible after the U.S. president-elect takes the oath of office. On his first visit to the USA since becoming Russia’s president in May, Medvedev reached out to the incoming U.S. administration. He said there is a lack of trust between Russia and the USA, but he hopes this will change when Obama becomes president Jan. 20. Medvedev said it was "in our power" for Russian-American relations to be "truly a partnership." Just hours after Obama won the presidential election, however, Medvedev fired a shot across his bow by warning against NATO move to militarize East Europe and that Russia would move short-range missiles to NATO's borders to "neutralize" the missile defense system if necessary. Medvedev has since backed off slightly though, and stressed that Russia would not act unless the United States took the first step and expressed hope that the Obama administration will be open to negotiations.

During a London summit April 1, President Obama and Russian President Medvedev, in an effort to kick-start relations, agreed to draw up a deal to replace their strategic weapons reduction program (START), which expires at the end of 2009. The two leaders will meet again in Moscow in July. On 2009 April 24, the U.S. and Russian negotiators emerged optimistic from talks aimed at creating a new treaty to reduce their nuclear weapon stockpiles and to replace the 1991 START as quickly as possible. As they continue an effort to improve relations that have become strained over the last few years, Russian foreign minister Lavrov and Clinton said in Washington, May 8, a new arms control treaty was the top priority for the two countries and insisted the talks would not be derailed by disagreements over other international issues, including the situation in Georgia and Iran's own nuclear program. Lavrov's visit last year came after NATO exercises in Georgia put relations between the two countries under renewed strain. Before arriving in Washington, the Russian foreign minister cancelled a meeting at NATO in protest against the exercises. After meeting Obama, Lavrov said an agreement to cut the countries' massive weapons arsenals 'is too important ... to make it hostage of any particular regime anywhere around the globe.'

IV

Disarmament and denuclearization are two most important issues not only constraining bilateral ties but affecting world peace. Iran and North Korea are highlighted as “rogue states” for their nuclear ambitions as if none in the world has that facility. When the nations that used WMD for whatever purposes are still refining the nuke technology and making high precision weapons systems. Launching the talks was part of Obama’s efforts to improve ties with Russia. U.S. and Russian arms negotiators have met several times in the last two months to prepare for the Moscow summit, with much of the discussion revolving around the missile defense system that Washington had planned to install in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Obama-Medvedev meet would pave way for heralding a better and safe world, onlyif they aadress the global nuclearism plus offiical proliferation threadbare. In view of intermittent US-Russia Stand-off, the Obama's Russia visit assumes special importance. Dmitry Medvedev said Russia is ready for deep cuts of strategic nuclear weapons in a new deal with the U.S. if the U.S. eases Moscow’s concerns about plans for a missile defense. Medvedev didn’t say what specific steps Russia expects the U.S. to take to assuage Moscow’s concerns, but the wording of his statement indicated readiness for a compromise.

U.S. and Russian negotiators have still not reached agreement on cutting stocks of their deadliest nuclear weapons ahead of President Barack Obama's first visit to Moscow. The two leaders would sign a framework agreement and then instruct negotiators to produce a detailed treaty ready for signing by December, when an existing pact known as START-1 regulating the number of long-range nuclear weapons expires. US Defense Secretary Robert GatesDefense Secretary Robert Gates said that the US administration was discussing an opportunity with Russia to deploy a radar station of the US missile defense system or the information exchange center on Russia ’s territory. Gates also said that Putin acknowledged the danger of the Iranian nuclear program. Will Russia ever let the USA build a radar station on the territory of the Russian Federation?

Estimates of current nuclear stockpiles differ but according to the U.S.-based Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the start of 2009 the USA had around 2,200 operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads and Russia around 2,790. The two sides have already agreed under a 2002 pact known as the Moscow Treaty to limit their arsenals to 1,700-2,200 operationally deployed warheads by 2012. Experts have criticized the START agreement because the reductions are not required to be permanent, warheads may be kept in storage, there is no verification regime to check on compliance and the treaty expires in 2012. Moscow has still not indicated what figure it will settle for as the negotiations are still going on. U.S. officials are still confident of securing an outline arms deal, as well as Moscow's assent for convoys of lethal U.S. military equipment bound for Afghanistan to cross Russian territory, but any agreements may yet be torpedoed by the bitterly fought issue of missile defense.

An Observation

Russians are unhappy that even after renouncing communism and imbibing capitalist virtues they are not respected by the US-led Western powers. The Kremlin grumbles over the way the Americans have exploited Russian in advancing US interests around the world. Russia projects a sense of renewed power and prominence on the world stage; by 2020 it’s expected to emerge as the fifth-largest economy in the world. Going forward, how the USA and Russia deal with each and with issues of mutual interest will have a significant impact around the globe. It has been a phenomenon in US-Russia negotiation to let Moscow have some concessions on issues of its interests and leave the crucial denuclearization and disarmament issues. WTO membership has been top on Russian agenda, though they say are not bothered about WTO.

USA still on the look out to contain strategies and any unilateral positive moves on part of Moscow are construed as a sing of Kremlin weakness. Apart from strategic arms limitations, Russia also announced to unilaterally reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 30 billion tonnes over a period since the 1990s until 2020 and expects similar steps from its partners. The Kremlin is gravely upset that after the then President Vladimir PutinPresident Vladimir Putin gave George W. BushGeorge W. Bush all the help he could after 9/11, for example not objecting to, even encouraging, the US making bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to fight the war in Afghanistan, there was again no give, just take. The US has set up military bases in Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria. Later Russia also dismantled its base and listening post in Cuba and pulled out of its naval base in Vietnam.

The Obama administration ordered a review of the anti-missile system after taking office and has not yet taken a final position on whether to deploy it. Kremlin sources have said that Obama has shown less interest in pursuing the anti-missile plans than his predecessor George W. Bush and that Moscow was encouraged by the USA showing a greater understanding of its concerns. The USA is proposing a maximum of 1,500-1,600 operational warheads for each side and 1,100 delivery vehicles. Russia is bargaining hard on the technical details of how many operational nuclear warheads each side should be allowed and how many "delivery vehicles" -- missiles or bombers -- they could have. The Russian military was now only willing to accept a limit of 1,700 warheads.

It is atrocious to see many write-ups, from a couple of so-called Muslims who are connected to the CIA-Mossad-RAW-Pentagon agencies, creating a big fuss about only Iran’s nuclearism while they are silent about Israel, the major thereat to Arabs. Iran has not opposed to any other nation, more so any Islamic country, acquiring nuclear facility and in fact it offered nuclear technology to Arab world. Iran’s nukes are not more dangerous than Israel’s or American or British, or any other power. Iran is trying to be a nuclear power, if not already unofficially become once, to defend Iranians and other Muslims in the region from any possible nuclear threat. If the Arab world prefers American support to Iranian ties, then obviously losers would not be Islamic Iran.

A couple of months ago President AhmadinejadPresident Ahmadinejad declared Iran having got the nukes and is a nuclear state, but sensing danger USA announced that Tehran had stopped nuclear operations in 2003 itself. Truth lies some where. Israel has not done that even today. North Korean position is too difficult to make conclusions about that now. President Obama scoffed at the idea that he should apologize to Iran’s leaders for criticizing their violent crackdown on demonstrators. Obama was also keen to get endorsement of the Kremlin for the Neocons’ message against Iran. After the failed poll war in Islamic Iran instigated by the USA and UK to remove Ahmadinejad, USA and Russia should also make a resolution not to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. Even Arms limitations do not guarantee any resolution of the global nuclear cum strategic issues, as there is no proper verification mechanism.

-By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal